Chapter 37: Another Earth-Shattering Conspiracy?

Zhao Kai, a man like that, was talking about seizing the advantage and launching a counterattack just two days ago, yet now he is huddled with Zhao Ji, whispering about peace negotiations.

Is this not a contradiction?

In truth, it is not a contradiction at all.

Because they are, by nature, members of the capitulationist faction. Whatever they say about launching an offensive is merely empty talk, a spur-of-the-moment whim. To truly believe their nonsense would be to dig one’s own grave.

Furthermore, Zhao Ji’s behavior today is undoubtedly the result of certain ministers whispering in his ear.

Zhao Ning is well aware that after he executed a few officials, some people would inevitably scurry to the retired Emperor.

The logic is quite simple.

Back when Li Yuan abdicated, there was still a large faction of officials who refused to submit to Li Shimin, doing everything in their power to restore Li Yuan to the throne.

Moreover, Zhao Ji has only been retired for a year; his influence remains profound.

This is a problem that cannot be solved for now, unless one were to kill Zhao Ji.

But killing Zhao Ji is a move fraught with too much risk. If word were to leak out, Zhao Ning’s prestige would plummet, especially his reputation among the common people.

Patricide is a grave violation of human ethics.

It would be a move of mutual destruction, serving only to make Zhao Kai the greatest beneficiary. Only a fool would do such a thing.

Is there no solution, then?

Of course there is.

The game of politics is not about immediately destroying one's opponent; it is about meticulously laying out a strategy to develop one’s own power.

Politics is a zero-sum game: as one side wanes, the other waxes.

When one’s own power becomes sufficiently formidable, the opponent’s influence naturally withers.

Take Li Shimin, for example.

Li Shimin’s rise to power was by no means solely achieved by eliminating the Crown Prince.

Eliminating Crown Prince Li Jiancheng was merely the final result.

The true cause was that Li Shimin had personally forged the foundation of the Great Tang, surrounded himself with clouds of fierce generals, and possessed immense prestige.

Even if Li Shimin had been unwilling to eliminate Li Jiancheng, the men who had followed him in founding the Great Tang would not have stood for it.

After all, they had loyally supported him as the Prince of Qin, expecting to one day hold high office in the imperial court, not merely to remain subordinates in the Prince of Qin’s manor.

Therefore, the only thing to do now is to continuously cultivate one’s own strength from within while steadily eroding the old power bases.

Once the old influence is weakened to a certain degree, Zhao Ji and Zhao Kai can jump about as much as they like—it will be of no use.

***

Returning from the Yanfu Palace, Zhao Ning found that Wang Huaiji had delivered a mountain of memorials.

The ministers had stopped playing the game of secret petitions and were now submitting formal memorials directly.

Each one was filled with long-winded, grandiose analyses of the current situation.

They mainly fell into two camps: First, "Your Majesty, it is not that we are proactively seeking peace or undermining morale; it is the enemy who has proposed it. Your Majesty, please reconsider; this is a rare opportunity!" Second, "The Jin have proposed peace, which proves they are at their breaking point. We should launch an immediate counter-offensive."

After reading a few, Zhao Ning began to grow drowsy.

He had no motivation to continue reading; it was all clichés and empty idealism.

It served only to highlight the utter corruption of the Song bureaucracy!

This sinking ship was laden with a crew of self-serving opportunists.

Zhao Ning picked up his brush and began to write his own analysis of the war.

The most important thing right now is the stability of the overall situation. He no longer expected the officials to have any capacity for salvation.

The priority was to maintain civilian morale and a unified front, and to continue communicating his own assessment of the situation so that the majority would understand, preventing them from being incited by clowns looking to stir up trouble.

On the sixth day of the twelfth month, a new article appeared in the *Tokyo Daily*: "On the Initial Stages of the Song-Jin War."

The article provided an objective and comprehensive analysis of the conflict, examining it from both spatial and temporal perspectives, and explained it in simple, easy-to-understand terms.

Zhao Ning divided the Song-Jin war into three stages:

First, the initial stage, where the Jin forces are formidable on the front lines.

Second, the stalemate stage, where the Song establish deep defensive garrisons and both sides commit massive resources.

Third, the decisive battle stage.

The detailed content focused on the initial stage. It argued the following:

First, the alliance between the Song and the Jin to destroy the Liao was a strategic error. Zhao Ning completely repudiated the previous "Alliance at Sea."

Second, the idea that the Song could trade money for the lost territory of Yanyun was a mistake; the Jin were insatiable.

Third, there is no diplomacy for a weak nation. Peace negotiations are a diplomatic tool, but they must be built upon equivalent military strength. Currently, the court is infested with capitulationists masquerading as peacemakers. They wish to squeeze money from the common people to pay off the Jin for a fleeting, shameful peace, while they themselves would not contribute a single coin!

Fourth, the "quick victory" faction is also wrong. The Song lacks the strength for a decisive frontal battle against the Jin. We must recognize this objectively and view it rationally.

At the same time, we must identify the Jin’s weaknesses and leverage our own strengths. The Jin’s weakness lies in their deep penetration into our territory; their supply lines are overextended, and their administrative capacity cannot keep pace. The hearts of the people in the Hebei and Hedong regions yearn for the Song.

Fifth, the first Battle of Tokyo, where the enemy penetrated deep into Song territory, was a military gamble. When Wanyan Zongwang retreated, the Song should have launched a full-scale counter-attack. This would have struck fear into the Jin, making them hesitate to attack the Song again.

Zhao Ning repudiated the appeasement policy from earlier that year. At that time, Wanyan Zongwang’s sixty-thousand-strong army had failed to take Tokyo and retreated in disarray to the north, yet Tang Ke, Geng Nanzhong, and others refused to pursue, even forbidding the garrisons along the route from engaging the enemy. It was tantamount to setting Wanyan Zongwang free.

Sixth, the reason the Jin invaded a second time was that the Song’s attitude appeared too weak, leading the Jin to believe we were easy to bully and could be trampled at will.

Seventh, by besieging the city, the Jin employed the tactic of "besieging the city to strike at reinforcements" (at the time, the Song Western Army was blocked at Tong Pass). The Jin hoped that by using military pressure to make us fear, they could then send envoys to feign peace negotiations, thereby relaxing and disintegrating us from within. This caused a swarm of capitulationists to breed in the court, leading us to consume ourselves. What we must do is firmly maintain a unified front and unite all forces that can be united. The Jin want a quick victory; we must not give them one. We must exhaust them.

Regarding peace, when military power is unequal, negotiation equals surrender. The Jin will inevitably demand massive amounts of gold, silver, and silk, and even demand our women.

Eighth, the purpose of the war is nothing other than to "preserve ourselves and destroy the enemy."

Ninth, we are currently in the initial stage of the Song-Jin war. In this stage, given our long-standing military decay, it is normal that we will lose repeatedly on the front lines. This is the price of our century of self-inflicted weakness, and there is no need for alarm. The Jin will use their superior cavalry mobility to drive deep into Hebei and Hedong, appearing invincible. In this stage, they will capture the three major garrisons of Hebei and Hedong. Then, the pro-war faction led by Wanyan Gao and Wanyan Zonghan will attempt to take Tokyo to plunder its immense wealth, and Han officials like Liu Yanzong and Shi Li'ai, in order to solidify their standing in the Jin court, will inevitably assist them with all their might. As long as we fight to the end, they cannot take Tokyo. The relief armies from all directions are on their way, and the righteous militias of Hebei and Hedong are also fighting the Jin. As they penetrate deep into our territory, our Hebei and Hedong troops can fight a guerrilla war, dispersing to harass the enemy's rear in non-fixed ways, avoiding direct confrontation and exhausting them. Our millions of Song subjects will provide us with intelligence.

Tenth, once the Jin army is exhausted, they will face a food crisis and crumbling morale. As the temperature rises, the Jin will suffer from the climate and be forced to withdraw. Before they withdraw, they will still try to intimidate us and extort a massive sum of money; we must not be fooled.

Eleventh, after the Jin withdraw, they will foster a puppet regime north of the Yellow River to check the local Han people, and they will focus on developing the three garrisons of Taiyuan, Zhending, and Zhongshan to prepare for another southern push the following year.

Once this article was published, it caused an unprecedented sensation in Tokyo.

Not only were the common people talking about it, but even the pro-peace faction—men like Tang Ke and Geng Nanzhong—bought copies to read immediately.

Even Zhao Kai bought a copy and sent it to the Yanfu Palace for Zhao Ji.

After reading it, Zhao Ji said with disdain, "Absurd! To publicly circulate such preposterous theories in the city—not only does he lose the dignity of our royal house, but if things do not develop as he predicts, how will the officials view him as their sovereign?"

Zhao Kai replied, "Father, the Emperor is becoming increasingly willful. If things truly reach an uncontrollable state, I pray you will step forward to take charge of the situation. I have been chatting with the officials these past few days, and there is not one who does not yearn for you."